TXRH·Texas Roadhouse Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

23.4% 38th pct

Below its peak

-23.1%

vs 200-day average

-8.1%

Up days (1y)

48%

Texas Roadhouse Inc. is currently running 23.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against TXRH's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 38th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 26.0%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

TXRH is trading -23.1% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.3%, and the deepest was -62.6% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -8.1% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 11th percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year TXRH closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 14 years of records, TXRH finished the month higher 11 of 14 times, with a median return of +5.3% and an average of +3.5%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +4.8% on average, its weakest September at -3.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: TXRH has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 143 of 3,268 sessions (4.4% of the time), with the largest gaps running +18.4% and -17.1%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-10-15 and 2026-10-14, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against TXRH's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.