FTAI·FTAI Aviation Ltd.

Realized volatility (21d)

55.8% 78th pct

Below its peak

-45.4%

vs 200-day average

-27.8%

Up days (1y)

48%

FTAI Aviation Ltd. is currently running 55.8% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against FTAI's own 11 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 78th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 36.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

FTAI is trading -45.4% below its running peak. Across 10 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -31.8%, and the deepest was -73.9% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.

Price sits -27.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 3rd percentile — a narrower gap than it typically runs. Over the past year FTAI closed higher on 48% of sessions, and it is currently 3 sessions into a falling streak.

On October specifically: over 11 years of records, FTAI finished the month higher 8 of 11 times, with a median return of +1.9% and an average of +1.4%. Its strongest month historically has been December at +5.6% on average, its weakest March at -3.5%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: FTAI has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 261 of 2,866 sessions (9.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +13.5% and -19.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,867 daily closes between 2015-05-15 and 2026-10-09, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against FTAI's own 11-year history, not a peer group or index.