MPLX|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $1.06 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.10 | $1.06 | -3.7% |
| Q1'25 | $1.15 | $1.10 | -4.4% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | $3.1B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $3.2B | $3.3B | +3.1% |
| Q1'25 | - | $3.1B | - |
MPLX|Monthly Returns
Market Data
MPLX Stock Snapshot
- Market cap
- 60.26B
- P/E ratio
- 12.8
- Day range
- $58.50 – $59.55
- News sentiment
- 59/100 · Neutral
- Analyst target
- $62.85 (+5.8%)
- Consensus
- Buy · 22 analysts
The signal on MPLX is bullish: price action is confirming the underlying trend, not fighting it. The stock is liquid enough that positioning changes get absorbed without distorting the trend.
Reverse DCF
What growth is priced into MPLX?
At today's price, MPLX LP needs to grow free cash flow about -2.0% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 6.59% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 45.4% a year, so the market is asking for 47.5 percentage points below its own delivered rate. On that basis MPLX looks priced below what its own growth record supports.
- Implied FCF growth
- -2.0%
- Historical FCF CAGR
- 45.4%
- Growth gap
- -47.5 pts
- Verdict
- CHEAP
- Discount rate (WACC)
- 6.59%
- Beta
- 0.57
Behaviour On Record
What MPLX's own history says about today's numbers
- Realized volatility (21d)
- 11.7% 5th pct
- Below its peak
- -27.7%
- vs 200-day average
- +4.8%
- Up days (1y)
- 52%
MPLX LP is currently running 11.7% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against MPLX's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 5th percentile — unusually subdued by its own history, against a typical reading of 23.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.
MPLX is trading -27.7% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -22.7%, and the deepest was -68.5% in 2020. The current drawdown is already deeper than this stock's typical annual low point, which puts it in the part of its range where past recoveries began — and where past declines also continued.
Price sits +4.8% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 57th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year MPLX closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 2 sessions into a rising streak.
On September specifically: over 13 years of records, MPLX finished the month higher 6 of 13 times, with a median return of -0.5% and an average of -2.9%. Its strongest month historically has been April at +6.7% on average, its weakest March at -4.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.
Overnight risk is measurable too: MPLX has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 158 of 3,266 sessions (4.8% of the time), with the largest gaps running +14.1% and -8.8%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.
All figures computed from 3,267 daily closes between 2013-09-23 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against MPLX's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.
Sector Rotation
Is money rotating into or out of MPLX's sector?
MPLX LP sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).
- Sector rank
- #11 of 11
- Sector state
- Improving
- Sector rotation score
- 30
Analyst Rating Changes
Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on MPLX?
RBC Capital most recently reiterated its rating on MPLX LP to Outperform on Aug 21, 2026 with a price target of $64 (from $60). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 1 downgrade, a net bearish lean.
- Latest action
- RBC Capital — Outperform
- 90-day upgrades
- 0
- 90-day downgrades
- 1
- Net rating momentum
- -1
