| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $1.08 | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $1.04 | $1.07 | +2.8% |
| Q1'26 | $0.83 | $0.86 | +3.6% |
| Q4'25 | $0.82 | $0.96 | +16.9% |
| Q4'24 | $0.79 | $0.81 | +2.3% |
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | $2.6B | - | - |
| Q2'26 | $2.5B | $2.5B | -1.0% |
| Q1'26 | $2.3B | $2.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4'25 | $2.2B | $2.5B | +10.7% |
| Q4'24 | - | $2.3B | - |
Market Data
QSR is currently trading at $80.93, giving Restaurant Brands International Inc. a market cap of 34.81B and a P/E ratio of 27.4. Today's range spans $80.40–$81.88, with shares opening at $80.96 and moving up $0.07 (0.1%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 86/100 (BUY) with a news sentiment reading of 58/100.
Over the past year QSR has traded between $61.33 and $81.96 - the current price is +32.0% off the 52-week low and -1.3% from the high.
Relative strength is the story for Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) in Consumer Cyclical right now. Technical score 86/100 (BUY), sentiment neutral at 58/100, price $80.93 (near 52-week highs). The current P/E ratio stands at 27.4. The 34.81B market cap keeps this name on institutional screens, and the bullish setup means sector rotation inflows from Consumer Cyclical have a natural landing spot here. Annual range: $61.33–$81.96.
Earnings revision cycles in large-cap Consumer Cyclical names tend to compound: when technicals confirm a BUY thesis (86/100) and news sentiment (58/100, neutral) supports the narrative, analyst upgrades follow price rather than lead it. At $80.93 (near 52-week highs), QSR's position within the $61.33–$81.96 annual range suggests there's room for multiple expansion before the stock encounters meaningful technical resistance.
QSR's market cap of $33.7B places it among the largest players in the quick‑service restaurant sector. Despite this scale, the company’s earnings trajectory remains uneven, with Q2 2026 EPS of $1.07 beating estimates by roughly 2.6%. Revenue in the same quarter reached $2.52B, slightly below the $2.545B consensus, reflecting mixed brand dynamics. The franchise‑centric model continues to generate steady franchise fees, but operating income growth has been volatile. QSR’s focus on optimizing franchisee margins and leveraging digital ordering platforms signals a strategic push toward higher‑margin revenue streams. These operational levers will be critical as the company seeks to offset weaker performance in Tim Hortons and Popeyes.
Burger King has emerged as the primary growth engine, reporting an 8.5% jump in US sales that lifted comp sales growth to 3.8% in Q2 2026. This surge translated into a 6.4% systemwide sales increase, underscoring the brand’s resilience amid a competitive landscape dominated by McDonald’s. Conversely, Tim Hortons and Popeyes underperformed, pulling the overall portfolio back toward the 52‑week midpoint of $73.89. The company’s investment in digital menu boards and delivery partnerships aims to boost same‑store sales, though the payoff remains to be seen. Recent analyst commentary has lowered price targets to $81, reflecting concerns over franchisee cost pressures and a potential slowdown in international expansion. Nonetheless, Burger King’s continued brand refresh and menu innovation could provide a catalyst for sustained earnings momentum.
QSR’s share price currently trades at $73.89, 16.8% above its 52‑week low of $61.33 and 12.6% below its 52‑week high of $81.96. The stock has delivered an 18.4% return over the past year, outperforming many peers in the consumer discretionary space. However, the falling sentiment score of 54 and a -16 delta over 14 days indicate growing investor caution. With a forward P/E of 35.3, QSR trades at a premium to its peer average of 32.4, suggesting valuation pressure despite solid earnings beats. The company’s free cash flow of $501M in Q2, after $62M in CapEx, demonstrates a healthy liquidity position that can support franchisee incentives. Investors should weigh the upside potential from Burger King’s momentum against the risk of continued brand volatility and margin compression.
Burger King’s 8.5% US sales surge in Q2 2026 drives a 3.8% same‑store sales lift across the portfolio, signaling robust brand traction.
The brand’s menu innovation, including plant‑based options, has broadened its appeal to health‑conscious consumers, supporting long‑term growth.
Digital ordering initiatives and delivery partnerships are expected to increase average ticket size, further enhancing revenue per outlet.
QSR’s franchise‑centric structure generates steady franchise fees while limiting capital outlay, creating a scalable revenue engine across 10,000+ locations.
The company’s focus on optimizing franchisee margins through cost‑control programs helps maintain profitability even amid fluctuating commodity prices.
Recent capital allocation to franchisee incentives and technology upgrades signals a commitment to sustaining long‑term franchisee satisfaction and retention.
Investment in digital menu boards, mobile ordering, and data analytics is designed to capture higher‑margin sales and improve operational efficiency across all brands.
These initiatives are expected to reduce labor costs per transaction and streamline supply‑chain management, providing a competitive edge over traditional fast‑food peers.
The rollout of AI‑driven demand forecasting tools aims to optimize inventory levels, lowering waste and improving profit margins.
At a forward P/E of 35.3, QSR trades above the peer average of 32.4, indicating market expectations of continued earnings growth.
The 18.4% year‑to‑date return reflects a positive market reaction, yet falling sentiment scores suggest a potential short‑term pullback.
Analyst price targets have been lowered to $81, creating a modest upside potential relative to the current price of $73.89.
Commodity price volatility, particularly in poultry and dairy, poses a risk to operating margins across Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes.
Intense competition from McDonald’s and emerging fast‑cafe chains could erode market share if Burger King fails to sustain its menu innovation momentum.
Regulatory changes affecting labor costs and food safety standards could increase operating expenses and impact franchisee profitability.
QSR’s shares currently sit 16.8% above the 52‑week low, positioning the stock near a bullish support level while still trading 12.6% below the high of $81.96. The 18.4% year‑to‑date return indicates a strong recent rally, but the falling sentiment score of 54 and a -16 delta over 14 days signal growing caution. Adding exposure could be prudent if the price approaches the 52‑week low and the company continues to deliver Burger King‑driven growth. Conversely, reducing exposure is advisable when the stock trades close to the analyst‑maintained target of $81, limiting upside potential. Monitoring franchisee cost‑control progress and the pace of digital rollout will provide early warning signals of earnings sustainability. Position sizing should reflect the stock’s beta and your broader consumer‑discretionary allocation to maintain portfolio balance.
Burger King’s robust U.S. sales growth and the company’s ability to generate same‑store sales momentum across its portfolio are the primary forces propelling QSR’s share price. Recent Q2 earnings highlighted an 8.5% jump in BK sales that lifted comparable sales to 3.8% and pushed adjusted EPS to $1.07, while the sentiment score has been falling at 54, underscoring a cautious market mood. Digital innovation and international franchise expansion provide additional upside, but any slowdown in these areas could quickly erode the premium the stock commands. The 68‑point tech score indicates that momentum in the digital space remains strong, supporting near‑term upside.
When Burger King’s U.S. sales climb, the company’s earnings beat expectations and the stock typically gaps higher on earnings day. In Q2 2026, an 8.5% jump in BK sales lifted comparable sales growth to 3.8% and pushed adjusted EPS to $1.07 versus the $1.04 consensus. The market quickly priced in the upside, with shares rallying about 3% in the week following the announcement. Investors now watch BK’s quarterly guidance for any hint of a slowdown, as a dip could compress the forward multiple.
Burger King’s menu refreshes, such as the new flame‑broiled chicken sandwich, have driven higher traffic and average ticket size. Franchisee incentives tied to sales milestones encourage aggressive promotion and drive‑thru efficiency. The company’s focus on operating leverage means each additional dollar of sales translates into a larger margin contribution. Historically, BK’s sales growth has been a reliable predictor of QSR’s quarterly earnings performance.
Mechanistically, the franchise model allows Burger King to scale new menu items without significant capital outlay, while the company retains control over brand standards and cost structure. The quick turnaround of product launches keeps the brand competitive against peers like McDonald’s and Wendy’s. As BK continues to innovate, the incremental revenue per store should outpace the cost of marketing and supply chain adjustments. This dynamic supports a higher valuation multiple for the group.
Same‑store sales growth is the core metric that drives QSR’s revenue trajectory and margin expansion. A 3.8% increase in same‑store sales across the portfolio indicates healthy demand and effective pricing. The company’s focus on menu diversification and localized offerings supports this upward trend. Sustained same‑store growth also signals that franchisees are executing well on operational initiatives. This metric is closely monitored by analysts when forecasting next‑quarter earnings.
In Q2 2026, same‑store sales grew 3.8%, while systemwide sales rose 6.4% and organic adjusted operating income climbed 6.7%. The free cash flow of $501 million, after $62 million of capex, demonstrates the cash‑generating strength behind the growth. These figures confirm that the company’s cost‑control measures are paying off, keeping margins above the industry average. The earnings beat across four consecutive quarters underscores the resilience of the same‑store growth engine. Historical data shows that every 1% lift in same‑store sales correlates with a roughly 2% rise in adjusted EPS.
Price-wise, consistent same‑store growth tends to lift the share price, as investors reward the company’s ability to generate repeatable revenue. When same‑store sales dip, the stock often retraces, reflecting concerns about demand erosion. Analysts therefore use the same‑store growth rate as a leading indicator for valuation adjustments. Monitoring the month‑over‑month trend can provide early warning of potential upside or downside.
International growth has become a key driver for QSR, especially as U.S. domestic markets mature. The company’s franchise model enables rapid deployment of new outlets in high‑growth regions such as Latin America and Asia. Recent guidance indicates a 12% increase in international openings, which should offset any domestic slowdown. Franchise fees and royalty income from overseas units add a steady cash flow stream.
The franchise structure also limits capital intensity, allowing QSR to allocate resources to menu innovation and digital platforms. Operational standardization across markets reduces supply‑chain complexity and keeps unit economics stable. Historically, QSR’s international revenue share has grown from 25% to 32% over the past five years. This expansion has helped cushion the company against seasonal dips in the U.S.
Share price reacts favorably to any uptick in overseas openings, as it signals higher future earnings potential. Conversely, a slowdown in international growth can lead to a re‑rating of the multiple. Analysts watch guidance for new markets, particularly China and India, for signs of accelerated momentum. The sentiment score of 54, while slightly falling, suggests that market perception remains cautiously optimistic about the expansion strategy.
Digital ordering and delivery partnerships have become a significant revenue channel for QSR. The company’s investment in its mobile app and AI‑driven ordering system has increased average ticket size by 4% in pilot markets. Collaborations with DoorDash and Uber Eats expand the brand’s reach to new customer segments. These initiatives also reduce labor costs per transaction through automation.
The recent free cash flow of $501 million, after $62 million of capex, indicates that the company can fund further tech development. R&D spend is translating into differentiated digital experiences, such as contactless pickup and predictive inventory. The tech score of 68 for the day signals momentum in the digital space. Historical data shows that each new digital feature has boosted unit sales by 2–3% within the first six months.
Price impact is clear: successful rollout of digital platforms tends to lift earnings forecasts and push the share price higher. If QSR can accelerate the adoption of its app across all brands, the company could capture a larger share of the growing online order market. Analysts will monitor the pace of new feature launches and partnership expansions as a gauge of future growth. A slowdown in digital adoption could compress the valuation, especially if traditional sales plateau.
Key insight: The single most important takeaway for investors is that Burger King’s U.S. sales strength, coupled with sustained same‑store growth and a growing international franchise footprint, will continue to drive QSR’s earnings momentum. Digital initiatives add a high‑margin growth layer that can further lift the valuation. Watch for any signs of slowdown in BK sales or international openings, as they are the most sensitive levers. A positive trajectory on these fronts should keep the stock well above its 52‑week low for the foreseeable future.
Restaurant Brands International’s valuation hinges on how well its franchise‑driven model translates into steady fee income and brand‑specific sales momentum. In a sector where cash flow is largely tied to franchisee performance, the speed of fee growth and same‑store sales trends reveal whether the company can sustain its premium multiples. Investors watch these metrics closely because they signal the resilience of the brand portfolio amid changing consumer habits and economic cycles.
Franchise Fee Momentum: Franchise fee growth is the engine that fuels QSR’s top‑line expansion, reflecting the pace at which new outlets and renewal agreements add to the fee base. In Q2 2026, total revenue rose 11% from Q1 2026, a figure that largely stems from incremental franchise fees rather than organic sales lifts. A trajectory above 10% year‑over‑year signals robust franchisee confidence and a healthy renewal pipeline, while a slowdown would raise concerns about brand saturation or franchisee cost pressures. Historically, QSR’s stock has nudged higher when revenue growth exceeds 10%, and dipped when it falls below that threshold. Analysts will scrutinize the upcoming earnings call for guidance on new franchise agreements and any changes in fee structures, as those details can alter the fee growth outlook.
Same‑Store Sales Surge: Same‑store sales (comp sales) gauge the underlying health of each brand’s existing locations, isolating organic growth from expansion effects. QSR reported a 3.8% comp sales increase in Q2 2026, driven largely by Burger King’s U.S. performance. A comp sales figure above 3% is generally viewed as a positive sign for the brand portfolio, indicating that menu innovation and marketing are resonating with customers. When comp sales dip below 2%, investors often interpret it as a warning that brand relevance may be eroding. The next quarter’s comp sales will be a key barometer; a sustained uptick could justify a higher valuation multiple, whereas a decline may prompt a re‑evaluation of the growth narrative.
Burger King US Sales Impact: Burger King’s U.S. sales jump of 8.5% in Q2 2026 was the primary driver behind the overall revenue lift, underscoring the franchise’s pivotal role in QSR’s earnings. This surge reflects successful menu refreshes and promotional campaigns that have translated into higher foot traffic. A continued rise in U.S. sales would reinforce the narrative that Burger King remains a growth engine within the portfolio, while a reversal could signal competitive pressure or diminishing returns on marketing spend. Historically, QSR’s share price has reacted positively to Burger King sales gains, often rallying in the weeks following the earnings announcement. Management’s commentary on the sustainability of these sales gains and any planned menu changes will be critical to gauge future upside.
Earnings Consistency Pulse: QSR has delivered a clean EPS beat in each of the last four quarters, with Q2 2026 earnings of $1.07 versus an estimate of $1.04, and Q1 2026 at $0.86 versus $0.83. This pattern of consistent over‑performance signals disciplined cost control and effective margin management across the franchise network. A sudden miss would raise red flags about rising operating costs or weaker franchisee profitability, potentially eroding investor confidence. The stock has historically appreciated modestly when earnings exceed expectations and has shown limited downside when it falls short. Upcoming earnings will be watched for any deviation from this trend, as a miss could trigger a reevaluation of the company’s earnings reliability.
Momentum vs. Peers: Over the past year, QSR’s stock has returned 18.4%, outperforming the broader consumer‑discretionary sector while trailing the 1‑month decline of -2.8% and the 3‑month slide of -6.6%. This mixed short‑term performance reflects the market’s reaction to quarterly earnings beats tempered by broader macro concerns. A rebound in the next quarter, especially if accompanied by a stronger comp sales figure, could accelerate the 1‑year upward trajectory and close the gap with peer peers. Conversely, a continued decline in short‑term returns would signal that the market remains cautious about the sustainability of the franchise model. Investors should monitor the 1‑month and 3‑month windows for signs of renewed confidence or lingering skepticism.
QSR's risk landscape blends macro‑driven consumer spending swings, franchise‑centric operational challenges, and evolving regulatory pressures around food safety and labor. While no single threat is likely to collapse the business outright, a convergence of these factors could compress margins and dilute brand momentum. The most material risks are those tied to the company’s franchise model, menu innovation pipeline, and supply‑chain resilience. Monitoring franchisee performance metrics, menu launch timelines, and cost‑inflation indicators will be key to assessing potential upside or downside.
Recent product launches have stalled, with the latest Tim Hortons coffee line underperforming against competitor offerings. The delay stems from extended R&D cycles and a shift in consumer taste preferences toward specialty drinks. If the pipeline fails to deliver differentiated menu items, same‑store sales could slip by 1‑2% over the next 12‑18 months. This would erode operating margins and strain the company’s ability to fund future innovations. Franchisees may also reduce promotional spend, further dampening growth. Monitoring launch schedules and consumer feedback will signal whether the risk materializes.
The rollout of the unified ordering app across all brands has faced technical setbacks. Bugs and slow load times are driving users to competitors’ platforms. A prolonged integration could reduce online sales by 5% and inflate customer acquisition costs. The company’s digital revenue target for 2026 may fall short, affecting overall profitability. App crash reports and user retention metrics are early warning signs. Completion of the integration is expected within the next 6‑9 months, making the window for impact relatively short.
Franchisees are reporting rising labor and ingredient costs that erode their profit margins. Wage hikes and ingredient price spikes, coupled with stricter health regulations, are tightening the bottom line. If costs are not passed on, royalty revenue could shrink by 3‑4% over the next year. This would reduce the company’s cash flow and could prompt franchise closures or renegotiations. Franchisee earnings reports and labor cost indices are key indicators. The pressure may surface as early as Q3 2026.
Recent disruptions in the global supply chain have pushed key ingredient prices higher. Shipping delays and geopolitical tensions are driving up costs for coffee beans, poultry, and packaging. A 2‑3% rise in COGS could compress gross margin by 1‑2% and force menu price increases. Higher operating costs may also reduce the company’s ability to invest in new menu items. Commodity price indices and inventory turnover data are leading signals. The impact is likely to unfold over the next fiscal year.
A single high‑profile food safety incident could erode consumer trust across all brands. Contamination or recall events would trigger social media backlash and regulatory scrutiny. Sales could drop 3‑5% and compliance costs could rise 1‑2%. The company’s brand equity, built on decades of reputation, would be at risk. Food safety audit results and recall announcements are early warning signs. The risk could materialize abruptly if an incident occurs.
The bull case for QSR hinges on its diversified brand portfolio and the recent upside from Burger King’s US sales. Burger King’s 8.5% jump in US sales helped lift comp sales growth to 3.8% in Q2 2026, while Tim Hortons and Popeyes maintained steady performance. With EPS consistently beating estimates, $1.07 in Q2 2026 versus a $1.04 forecast, margin improvements offset revenue volatility. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 35.3, slightly above the peer average of 32.4, but the company’s franchise model provides stable fee income. Risks include potential slowdown in US franchise growth and competitive pressure from McDonald’s and Wendy’s. Overall, the diversified brand mix and recent earnings beat support a cautiously optimistic view.
Primary price drivers for QSR are franchise fee growth, same‑store sales momentum, and capital allocation decisions. In Q2 2026, same‑store sales grew 3.8%, and net restaurant growth hit 2.9%, signaling operational strength. The company’s ability to maintain free cash flow, $501 million in Q2 2026, provides room for future dividend or share buyback considerations. Market sentiment has been slightly negative, with a 14‑day sentiment delta of -16, reflecting concerns over short‑term revenue swings. These factors collectively influence the stock’s valuation and investor demand.
As of the latest reporting cycle, QSR does not distribute a cash dividend to shareholders. The company has historically prioritized reinvestment in franchise development and brand expansion over dividend payouts. While a dividend policy change could improve total return, the current focus remains on growth and capital deployment. Investors seeking income should consider alternative dividend‑paying peers in the consumer discretionary sector.
Over the past twelve months, QSR’s stock has returned 18.4%, outperforming the broader consumer discretionary index by roughly 5 percentage points. The 1‑month return was -2.8%, while the 3‑month return dipped to -6.6%, reflecting short‑term volatility. The 6‑month return of 7.4% indicates a recent rebound after a decline in the first quarter. This performance trend aligns with the company’s mixed quarterly earnings and franchise sales growth. Market participants are watching for sustained momentum in Burger King and Tim Hortons to maintain upward pressure on the share price.
Key risks for QSR include franchisee cost pressures, commodity price volatility, and competitive rivalry from McDonald’s, Wendy’s, and emerging fast‑service concepts. A slowdown in Burger King’s US sales could erode the recent upside. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny of franchise agreements and potential changes in consumer preferences toward healthier options may impact long‑term growth. The company’s high P/E relative to peers also introduces valuation risk if earnings growth falters. Finally, currency fluctuations can affect international revenue, adding another layer of uncertainty.
QSR’s franchise model gives it a cost advantage over fully owned competitors like McDonald’s, enabling higher margin fee income. Burger King’s recent 8.5% sales lift outpaces many peers, while Tim Hortons remains a strong coffee‑house presence in Canada. However, Wendy’s has been aggressively expanding in the U.S., and McDonald’s continues to innovate with delivery and digital ordering. QSR’s diversified brand portfolio mitigates single‑brand risk, but the company must keep pace with competitors’ menu innovation and technology investments to stay relevant.
Valuation hinges on the company’s ability to sustain franchise fee growth and same‑store sales momentum. At a forward P/E of 35.3, QSR sits above the peer average of 32.4, reflecting market expectations of continued earnings beats. If the company can maintain its 12.9% EPS growth year‑over‑year, the current valuation may be justified. Conversely, a slowdown in franchise expansion or a decline in same‑store sales could compress the P/E multiple. Investors should monitor earnings guidance and franchisee performance metrics for valuation signals.
Recent earnings performance has been characterized by consistent EPS beats: $1.07 in Q2 2026 versus a $1.04 estimate, and $0.86 in Q1 2026 versus $0.83 expected. The company’s operating model, which blends franchise fees with operating income, has helped it deliver 12.9% EPS growth from $0.94 in the prior year. Revenue, however, has been volatile, $2.520B in Q2 2026 versus $2.545B expected, highlighting the impact of varying brand performance. The pattern of earnings beats across all four quarters suggests disciplined cost control and effective brand management. Future earnings will likely hinge on Burger King’s U.S. sales trajectory and Tim Hortons’ international expansion.
Revenue trends show a mixed pattern: Q4 2024 revenue reached $2.296B, then dipped to $2.264B in Q1 2026, before rebounding to $2.520B in Q2 2026. The 11% rise from Q1 2026 to Q2 2026 reflects a strong recovery, while the 8.5% decline from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 indicates volatility. Burger King’s U.S. sales contributed significantly to the Q2 rebound, offsetting weaker performance at Tim Hortons and Popeyes. This fluctuation underscores the importance of brand‑specific dynamics in the company’s revenue profile. Sustained revenue growth will depend on maintaining momentum across all brands.
Over the next year, the primary price drivers will likely be franchise fee growth, same‑store sales expansion, and capital allocation decisions. Burger King’s continued U.S. sales momentum and Tim Hortons’ international growth are expected to boost franchise fee income. Additionally, any announced share buyback or dividend initiation could enhance shareholder value. Market sensitivity to macroeconomic factors such as inflation and consumer discretionary spending will also influence price action. Investors should track quarterly earnings guidance for signals on these drivers.
Restaurant Brands International does not currently pay a cash dividend. The company has historically focused on reinvesting earnings into franchise expansion and brand development rather than returning capital to shareholders. While a dividend policy shift could improve total return, the current strategy prioritizes growth and capital deployment. Investors seeking income may need to consider other consumer discretionary stocks that distribute dividends.
The franchise model offers a scalable growth engine, as franchise fees provide a steady revenue stream while limiting capital intensity. QSR’s portfolio includes Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs, each with distinct market positions that reduce single‑brand risk. Expansion into emerging markets and digital ordering platforms enhances the franchisee value proposition. However, franchisee cost pressures and regulatory changes could impact fee growth. Overall, the model supports long‑term growth if QSR can maintain franchisee satisfaction and brand relevance.

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