AFRM·Affirm Holdings, Inc.

Realized volatility (21d)

61.3% 25th pct

Below its peak

-55.3%

vs 200-day average

+13.6%

Up days (1y)

49%

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is currently running 61.3% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against AFRM's own 6 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 25th percentile — on the quiet side for this stock, against a typical reading of 75.9%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

AFRM is trading -55.3% below its running peak. Across 5 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -56.7%, and the deepest was -90.8% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +13.6% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 60th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year AFRM closed higher on 49% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On October specifically: over 6 years of records, AFRM finished the month higher 4 of 6 times, with a median return of +6.6% and an average of +8.2%. Its strongest month historically has been August at +22.7% on average, its weakest February at -17.3%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: AFRM has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 131 of 1,445 sessions (9.1% of the time), with the largest gaps running +9.2% and -6.2%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 1,446 daily closes between 2021-01-13 and 2026-10-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against AFRM's own 6-year history, not a peer group or index.