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SCCO·Southern Copper Corporation

$188.24
-0.11 (-0.06%)
High
$190.95
Open
$190.00
Market Cap
156.67B
52W High
$220.78
Low
$186.64
P. Close
$188.24
P/E
27.67
52W Low
$101.09
Fwd P/E
25.89
DailyIQ Est.
$148.21
Inst. Ownership
4.7%
Short Interest
1.27%
Days to Cover
8.7
Technical Score (1D)
36
SELL
News Sentiment
48
MIXED
Southern Copper’s shares fell 7 % in the most recent session after a sharp reversal of the copper rally that had driven miners higher earlier this week, a move that traders attribute to renewed tariff uncertainty on refined copper. The dip comes amid a broader sector sell‑off that has seen peers such as Freeport‑McMoRan and Teck slide 7‑8 % in the same session, suggesting market participants are re‑pricing copper exposure and tightening risk on the commodity. The decline is unlikely to signal a long‑term trend reversal, as SCCO remains up 42 % year‑to‑date and its earnings guidance for the next quarter remains robust, with analysts projecting a 48 % year‑over‑year increase in EPS. However, the short‑term headwind could pressure the company’s revenue outlook if copper prices fail to rebound, especially given the potential cost impact of U.S. tariffs on refined copper. In the next 1–10 trading days, traders should monitor the copper price trajectory and any policy updates on tariffs, as these will directly influence SCCO’s margin profile. Additionally, the upcoming earnings release will confirm whether the company’s projected EPS growth holds, providing a clearer picture of its near‑term earnings trajectory. Watch for any adjustments to the company’s dividend policy, which has been a key driver of investor interest and could signal management’s confidence in cash‑flow generation. Finally, keep an eye on the technical consolidation near recent highs; a breakout or breakdown from this zone could set the tone for the stock’s short‑term direction.
Earnings Summary
Southern Copper Corporation is a global mining enterprise specializing in the extraction, smelting, and refining of copper and other valuable minerals, with a focus on copper cathodes, molybdenum concentrates, and precious metals such as silver and gold; it operates integrated mines and processing facilities in Peru and Mexico and holds exploration concessions in Argentina and Chile, positioning it as a leading player in the copper sector. In its most recent reported quarter, Q1 2025, the company posted earnings per share of $1.15672 versus an estimate of $1.10379, marking a beat and reflecting robust profitability; revenue for the period was $3.1219 billion, though a comparable estimate was not provided. While data for the preceding quarters are incomplete, analyst projections for Q2 2026 suggest EPS of $1.81 (up 34 % YoY) and revenue of $4.13 billion (a 22 % increase), indicating a potential continuation of the upward trajectory and a likely earnings beat that could support the share price. Historically, Southern Copper has shown a consistent YoY growth pattern, with the year‑to‑date consensus of $7.61 EPS and $16.86 billion revenue representing increases of 45 % and 26 % respectively, underscoring a strong earnings trajectory; the company has frequently outperformed analyst estimates, particularly in periods of elevated copper prices. Recent news highlights a 5.4 % dividend yield supported by strong profitability and a sustainable payout ratio, positioning SCCO as a high‑quality income play; the company’s $20.5 billion investment plan focused on Peruvian projects signals long‑term output growth that could sustain higher copper prices and earnings, though the stock trades at a premium valuation that could erode if execution slows. Investors should watch the upcoming earnings release for confirmation of the projected EPS and revenue, monitor price action around the consolidation zone for breakout signals, and keep an eye on any updates regarding the execution pace of the investment plan and changes in copper price dynamics that could influence the company’s margin profile.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$0.99$1.23$1.47$1.71$1.95Q1'25Q4'25
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'25$1.84 - -
Q1'25$1.10$1.16+4.8%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$3.0B$3.3B$3.6B$3.9B$4.2BQ1'25Q4'25
QtrEstActual+/−
Q4'25$4.1B - -
Q1'25 - $3.1B -

Market Data

SCCO Stock Snapshot

HOLD36/100
$188.24$0.11 (0.1%)
Market cap
156.67B
P/E ratio
27.7
Day range
$186.64 – $190.95
News sentiment
48/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$171.44 (-8.9%)
Consensus
Hold · 19 analysts
52-week range+86.2% off low · -14.7% from high
$101.09$220.78
Price $188.24 DailyIQ Est. $148.21

SCCO sits in the upper part of its 52-week range with the technical picture unresolved. Institutional coverage is thorough here, so shifts in analyst expectations show up in price quickly.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into SCCO?

RICH

At today's price, Southern Copper Corporation needs to grow free cash flow about 39.5% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 11.39% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 6.7% a year, so the market is asking for 32.8 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis SCCO looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
39.5%
Historical FCF CAGR
6.7%
Growth gap
+32.8 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
11.39%
Beta
1.35

Behaviour On Record

What SCCO's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
59.1% 95th pct
Below its peak
-15.2%
vs 200-day average
+5.5%
Up days (1y)
52%

Southern Copper Corporation is currently running 59.1% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against SCCO's own 13 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 95th percentile an extreme by its own standards, against a typical reading of 31.5%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

SCCO is trading -15.2% below its running peak. Across 12 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -27.8%, and the deepest was -48.1% in 2018. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +5.5% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 51st percentile close to the gap it normally carries. Over the past year SCCO closed higher on 52% of sessions, and it is currently 5 sessions into a falling streak.

On September specifically: over 14 years of records, SCCO finished the month higher 6 of 14 times, with a median return of -2.5% and an average of +1.0%. Its strongest month historically has been January at +4.2% on average, its weakest June at -1.2%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: SCCO has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 281 of 3,268 sessions (8.6% of the time), with the largest gaps running +11.0% and -6.9%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 3,269 daily closes between 2013-09-16 and 2026-09-15, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against SCCO's own 13-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of SCCO's sector?

Southern Copper Corporation sits in the Materials sector, currently ranked 7th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (lagging).

Sector rank
#7 of 11
Sector state
Lagging
Sector rotation score
40

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for SCCO?

CallsPuts

For Southern Copper Corporation's nearest expiry (2026-09-18, 3 days out), open interest is put-heavy, a defensive/bearish tilt (put/call ratio of 1.29), with at-the-money implied volatility around 46.4%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±4.5% move by that expiry — a range of about $179.83–$196.69.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-18)
1.29
ATM implied volatility
46.4%
Total open interest
10,983
Expected move by 2026-09-18
±4.5% ($179.83–$196.69)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on SCCO?

Barclays most recently reiterated its rating on Southern Copper Corporation to Underweight on Jul 23, 2026 with a price target of $166 (from $160). Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 0 upgrades against 0 downgrades, a net mixed lean.

Latest action
BarclaysUnderweight
90-day upgrades
0
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
0
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Jul 23, 2026BarclaysMaintainedUnderweight$160 → $166
Jul 16, 2026BarclaysMaintainedUnderweight$148 → $160
Jul 9, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$171 → $172
Jul 8, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedUnderweight$146 → $158
Jun 30, 2026UBSMaintainedSell$145 → $160
Jun 17, 2026JP MorganMaintainedUnderweight$127 → $132
Jun 15, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Underperform → Sector Underweight$135 → $140
May 22, 2026BarclaysInitiatedUnderweight$148
May 21, 2026UBSMaintainedSell$140 → $145
May 15, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Underperform$133 → $135
May 1, 2026Wells FargoMaintainedEqual-Weight$186 → $171
Apr 23, 2026ScotiabankMaintainedSector Underperform$125 → $133

SCCO Competitive Positioning

Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is tracked alongside these names in Copper on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.