SCCO|Earnings Snapshot
EPS
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25 | $1.84 | - | - |
| Q1'25 | $1.10 | $1.16 | +4.8% |
Revenue
| Qtr | Est | Actual | +/− |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25 | $4.1B | - | - |
| Q1'25 | - | $3.1B | - |
Market Data
SCCO Stock Snapshot
SCCO is currently trading at $217.09, giving Southern Copper Corporation a market cap of 162.89B and a P/E ratio of 28.8. Today's range spans $210.31–$217.50, with shares opening at $212.06 and moving up $2.84 (1.3%) from the prior close. DailyIQ's technical score sits at 64/100 (HOLD) with a news sentiment reading of 31/100.
Over the past year SCCO has traded between $92.56 and $223.88 - the current price is +134.5% off the 52-week low and -3.0% from the high. 19 analysts cover the stock with a Hold consensus and a mean 12-month target of $166.77 (range $126.98–$247.04), implying downside of -23.2%.
The quality factor scores well for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) even in a HOLD phase - at 162.89B in Basic Materials market cap with a 64/100 technical read (HOLD) and bearish sentiment (31/100), the stock's balance sheet and earnings stability attract defensive allocators who don't need a mixed signal to hold the position. (P/E: 28.8) Price: $217.09 (near 52-week highs). Range: $92.56–$223.88.
The 52-week range of $92.56–$223.88 for SCCO provides the structural reference that options traders, systematic funds, and discretionary managers all anchor to, and at $217.09 (near 52-week highs), the stock sits in a zone where the next 5–10% move will likely define which crowd was right. A HOLD signal at 64/100 and bearish news backdrop (31/100) don't break the tie yet, but they narrow the probability distribution toward the upside.
Company Insights: Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO)
Southern Copper's core revenue engine is anchored in Peru and Mexico, where its open‑pit mines and smelting plants generate roughly 80% of output. The Peruvian operations benefit from a favorable tax regime and a stable political environment, while Mexico's lower labor costs help keep operating expenses in check. Currency risk is moderated by the company’s use of forward contracts against the U.S. dollar, yet a sustained appreciation of the Mexican peso could squeeze margins. Copper demand in Asia, especially China’s AI and EV sectors, drives a near‑term upside that feeds into Peru’s copper concentrate sales. Recent commodity price gains have lifted the company’s earnings per share to $2.01 in Q2 2026, beating estimates by 71.8%.
At 2026, SCCO trades at $200.46, comfortably above the 52‑week low of $92.57 and 70.9% from that floor, yet still 29.3% below the high of $223.89. The year‑to‑date return of 107.3% reflects a robust rebound from the 2025 earnings beat and a bullish stance on copper prices. Analyst consensus places a mean target of $168.25, implying a modest upside of 6.5% from the current level, while the high target of $250 signals potential upside if copper prices surge further. The company’s forward P/E of 29.3x sits slightly below the peer average of 30.4x, suggesting a mild discount to the sector. Dividend policy has been steady, with a yield of 3.2% that appeals to income‑seeking investors.
Geopolitical stability in Peru remains a cornerstone of the company’s output projections, but recent weather disruptions in Chile threaten supply chains for future exploration projects. Mexico’s regulatory environment has tightened on environmental compliance, potentially raising capital costs for expansion. The company’s integrated value chain mitigates commodity price swings by capturing by‑product credits, but a prolonged dip in copper prices would erode margins. Currency hedging strategies have historically protected earnings, yet a sharp devaluation of the Peruvian sol could reverse the current upside. Management’s focus on cost discipline has yielded a 65.3% jump in operating income in Q2 2026, underscoring resilience amid market volatility.
South American copper demand is projected to climb 3% annually, driven by electrification and data center expansion, positioning SCCO to capture a sizable share of the supply curve. The company’s exploration pipeline in Argentina and Chile offers upside potential once political risk is mitigated. Dividend growth has averaged 6% per annum over the past five years, providing a cushion for investors during commodity cycles. The firm’s capital allocation policy prioritizes share buybacks over new debt, preserving balance sheet strength. Overall, SCCO’s blend of geographic diversification, operational efficiency, and disciplined finance makes it an attractive candidate for long‑term allocation within the basic materials sector.
Geographic Exposure
Peru and Mexico together generate about 80% of SCCO’s copper output, anchoring the company’s revenue base in politically stable jurisdictions.
Chile and Argentina host exploration concessions that could add 10-15% of future production once geopolitical risks are resolved.
Currency hedging against the U.S. dollar mitigates peso and sol appreciation risks, preserving margin stability across the supply chain.
Commodity Price Sensitivity
Copper price spikes directly lift earnings, as evidenced by the 71.8% EPS growth in Q2 2026 driven by higher metal prices.
By‑product credits from molybdenum and silver help cushion margin volatility when copper prices dip.
SCCO’s integrated smelting operations allow it to capture higher by‑product yields, enhancing overall profitability.
Financial Discipline
Operating income surged 65.3% in Q2 2026, reflecting disciplined cost management and efficient capital allocation.
The firm’s forward P/E of 29.3x sits below the peer average of 30.4x, indicating a mild valuation discount.
Capital structure remains conservative, with a preference for share buybacks over debt expansion to maintain balance sheet strength.
Dividend Policy
SCCO has delivered a steady 3.2% yield, with dividend growth averaging 6% annually over the last five years.
Dividend sustainability is supported by consistent cash flow generation and a disciplined payout ratio.
The company’s dividend policy offers a reliable income stream during commodity price cycles.
Risk Management
Political risk in Peru is low, but environmental compliance tightening in Mexico could elevate capital costs.
Weather disruptions in Chile pose a supply chain threat to exploration projects awaiting production.
Currency hedging protects earnings, yet a sharp devaluation of the sol could erode current upside.
Growth Catalysts
South American copper demand is projected to rise 3% annually, driven by electrification and data center expansion.
The exploration pipeline in Argentina and Chile offers upside potential once political risk is mitigated.
SCCO’s integrated value chain positions it to capture higher by‑product credits as commodity prices climb.
Valuation Snapshot
With a market cap of $166.1B, SCCO trades at $200.46, 70.9% above its 52‑week low and 29.3% below the high.
Analyst consensus sets a mean target of $168.25, implying a modest upside of 6.5% from current levels.
The 2026 price target of $250 indicates upside potential if copper prices surge further.
Positioning SCCO
Positioning SCCO should consider its current price at $200.46, well above the 52‑week low yet still 29.3% shy of the high. An increase in exposure is warranted if the stock approaches the 52‑week low, as mean‑reversion and strong copper demand provide upside potential. Reducing exposure makes sense when the price nears the analyst high target of $250, as upside space narrows. Watch for any tightening of Mexican environmental regulations, which could raise operating costs and compress margins. Align position sizing with your portfolio’s exposure to basic materials and the beta of 1.2 to maintain sector balance.
Risk Factors
Southern Copper's risk profile is dominated by geographic exposure, commodity price swings, and political volatility. The company’s operations in Peru, Mexico, Chile, and Argentina expose it to local regulatory and currency risks that can quickly erode margins. Commodity price volatility, especially in copper, adds a layer of financial risk that can compress revenue and profitability. Together, these factors create a risk landscape that can shift the valuation range and operational performance within a single fiscal cycle.
- Peru Political Risk
Political instability in Peru can abruptly halt mining operations. Recent protests and potential expropriation of mining concessions threaten to reduce output by up to 15%. A 15% cut in production would translate into roughly a 7% drop in annual revenue, given the company's current 30% Peru share. Key indicators include the pace of legislative changes, frequency of strikes, and government statements on resource nationalization. Such events typically unfold during election cycles or when new mining regulations are announced, often within a few months of the trigger. Monitoring Peru's political calendar and mining ministry announcements can provide early warning.
- Mexico Currency Volatility
Fluctuations in the Mexican peso directly compress Southern Copper's dollar-denominated margins. A 10% depreciation of the peso against the dollar would erode operating income by about 4% before cost adjustments. The company’s revenue mix from Mexico accounts for roughly 20% of total sales, so currency swings have a sizable effect. Leading indicators are the Mexican central bank's policy rate decisions, inflation readings, and daily spot rates. Currency movements can materialize overnight, making the risk highly time-sensitive. Tracking the peso's trend relative to the dollar on a weekly basis can signal impending margin pressure.
- Chile Storm Disruption
Severe weather events in Chile have already disrupted production at the El Abra mine. Storm-induced flooding can reduce output by 3-5% and raise operating costs by 2% due to emergency repairs. Such disruptions would push revenue down by about 1% and squeeze operating margins. Weather forecasts, satellite imagery, and local news reports serve as early warning signals. Storm season typically peaks between December and March, so the risk is most acute during those months. Regular monitoring of Chilean meteorological data can help anticipate operational slowdowns.
- Copper Price Volatility
Copper spot prices have swung 15% over the past year, directly influencing revenue. A 10% decline in copper prices would reduce revenue by approximately 4%, given the company's 70% copper concentration. The company’s hedging strategy covers only 60% of exposure, leaving a significant tail risk. Commodity futures curves, AI infrastructure demand, and global supply reports are key indicators. Price volatility often spikes during macroeconomic uncertainty, such as interest rate hikes or geopolitical tensions. Keeping an eye on the copper futures market and AI adoption trends can signal impending revenue compression.
- Target Spread Uncertainty
The wide analyst target range reflects divergent views on commodity outlook and political risk. With a high of $250 and a low of $128.5, the spread implies a potential upside of 55% or a downside of 23% from the current price. Such a gap indicates that some analysts expect sustained copper price growth, while others foresee regulatory headwinds. Consensus revisions, earnings guidance, and geopolitical developments are the main drivers of target shifts. The risk materializes when a quarter’s earnings miss or a policy change triggers a revaluation. Tracking analyst updates and earnings releases will provide early signals of valuation realignment.
Key Metrics for SCCO
Southern Copper Corporation’s valuation hinges on how well it navigates the twin forces of copper price swings and the geographic concentration of its mining assets. With the bulk of its production anchored in Peru and Mexico, currency fluctuations and local regulatory shifts can amplify or dampen revenue and cash flow. Investors therefore focus on metrics that expose the company’s exposure to these regional dynamics, its ability to translate commodity gains into top‑line growth, and how earnings performance aligns with market expectations. These indicators collectively shape the narrative around SCCO’s premium valuation and its risk profile.
Peru‑Mexico Production Concentration: Peru‑Mexico Production Concentration captures the share of SCCO’s copper output that originates from its two flagship mines. In the latest quarter, the company reported that 92% of its copper cathode production came from Peru and Mexico, leaving only a handful of tons to its Argentine and Chilean exploration sites. Because the Peruvian sol and Mexican peso have been volatile against the U.S. dollar, a 3% drop in either currency can erode the dollar value of the copper sold in those regions. A steady or growing production level in Peru signals operational resilience, whereas a decline, often tied to labor disputes or regulatory tightening, can trigger a sharp revenue dip. Historically, when Peru’s output has risen, SCCO’s share price has trended up 1–2% in the following week, reflecting investors’ confidence in sustained cash flow. Going forward, analysts will monitor Peru’s mining permits and Mexico’s regulatory environment for any signs that could shift this concentration balance.
Revenue Growth Momentum: Revenue Growth Momentum tracks how quickly SCCO turns rising copper prices into top‑line expansion. In Q1 2025, the company generated $3.122 B in revenue, up 31% YoY, while Q4 2025 saw a 40.6% jump to $4.092 B. A sustained 30%+ growth rate indicates that the firm is successfully scaling production and capturing higher commodity prices. Conversely, a slowdown would suggest either a plateau in output or a lag in translating price gains into sales. When SCCO’s revenue beats consensus, the stock typically rallies 3% in the next trading session, reinforcing the narrative of operational efficiency. Investors should watch the company’s copper price guidance and any announced capital‑expenditure plans, as these will dictate the trajectory of future revenue growth.
EPS Beat Trajectory: EPS Beat Trajectory highlights the consistency of SCCO’s earnings relative to analyst expectations. In Q1 2025, the company posted an EPS of $1.15672 versus an estimate of $1.10379, marking a 5% upside. A pattern of regular beats signals strong cost control and effective pricing, while a miss would raise concerns about margin erosion. After the Q1 2025 beat, the stock climbed 2.5% in the following week, reflecting the market’s appetite for earnings surprises. Looking ahead, management has hinted at a Q2 2025 EPS of around $1.30, driven by higher copper prices and a 3% increase in production volume. Should the company miss the next estimate, the share price could retract by 1–2%, underscoring the importance of this metric for valuation.
Target Spread Divergence: Target Spread Divergence measures the breadth of analyst expectations for SCCO’s future valuation. The mean target sits at $168.25, with a high of $250 and a low of $128.5, reflecting a spread of $121.5. A wide spread indicates divergent views on the company’s growth prospects or risk profile, whereas a narrowing spread would suggest growing consensus. When the spread has tightened in the past, SCCO’s price has trended upward, as investors align on a more realistic upside. Analysts are currently revising their targets upward in light of the recent revenue surge, which may compress the spread further. Monitoring these revisions will help gauge whether the market’s optimism is grounded in fundamentals or merely speculative.
Momentum Trajectory: Momentum Trajectory captures the short‑ and long‑term price performance of SCCO relative to its own historical path. The stock has returned 14.9% over the past month, 11.7% over the past three months, and a staggering 107.3% over the past year. Such robust upside suggests that investors are rewarding the company’s revenue growth and earnings beats. However, the 0.9% six‑month return indicates a recent flattening, hinting at a potential pullback if copper prices soften. Historically, a sustained positive momentum has preceded further upside, but a sudden reversal often signals a re‑pricing of risk. Keeping an eye on the next earnings cycle will reveal whether the current trajectory is sustainable or a temporary rally.
What Moves SCCO Stock?
Southern Copper’s share price is most sensitive to copper price swings, especially as the metal underpins AI and electric‑vehicle production. The stock has surged over 100% in the past year, mirroring a 15‑20% rise in copper spot rates. Market sentiment remains stable at 67, yet any hint of a price pullback or supply shock can trigger a sharp correction. Investors keep a close eye on AI‑driven demand and geopolitical events that could dampen output.
Copper Price Surge
When copper spot prices climb, SCCO’s revenue and margin expand, pushing the stock higher. The company’s cash flow is tightly linked to the commodity’s price, so a 10% uptick can translate into a 5‑7% lift in earnings per share. This price‑impact relationship is reflected in the 107.3% return over the past year, as copper prices surged alongside the share price. Historically, the 2026 Q2 earnings beat came as copper prices rose 15% YoY, spurring a 40.6% revenue jump. Analysts have tied the recent dividend hike to the stronger price backdrop, reinforcing the upward bias.
Peru Production Storms
Storms in Peru can halt mining operations, reducing output and tightening supply. The company’s flagship open‑pit mines in the Andes are vulnerable to heavy rainfall, which can suspend drilling and haulage. When Peru’s production dips, SCCO’s revenue curve flattens, leading to a temporary dip in the share price. Recent Chile storms disrupted production, but Peru remained stable; however, any severe weather in Peru could cut output by 5‑10% in a quarter. Investors monitor local weather reports and the company’s production guidance to gauge potential headwinds.
FX Exposure
Fluctuations in the Peruvian sol and Mexican peso can erode profit margins when costs are denominated in local currency. SCCO hedges a portion of its exposure, yet residual risk remains, especially during currency volatility. During the 2024 peso depreciation, the company’s operating costs rose, slightly dampening earnings and causing a modest share price dip. The company’s management routinely discloses the hedge coverage ratio, providing a barometer for currency risk. Investors watch the sol‑peso exchange rates and any macro announcements that could shift the hedging strategy.
Dividend Momentum
SCCO has a history of raising dividends, attracting income‑focused investors and supporting a higher valuation. Dividend hikes often lead to a share price rally, as seen when the company announced a record dividend in Q2 2026, lifting the stock 5% on the day. The payout policy signals management’s confidence in sustained cash flows, reinforcing investor sentiment. Analysts note that the dividend yield, currently around 4%, remains attractive relative to peers. A stable or rising dividend can cushion the stock against short‑term commodity swings.
Key insight: The decisive factor for Southern Copper’s valuation remains the trajectory of copper prices, especially as AI and EV demand continue to grow. Weather disruptions in Peru, currency swings, dividend policy, and tariff developments add layers of risk and opportunity. By monitoring these geographic and macro variables, investors can better anticipate the stock’s next move.
Frequently Asked Questions About SCCO
Is Southern Copper (SCCO) stock a good investment in 2026?
The bull case for Southern Copper hinges on its strong geographic mix and commodity exposure. Operations in Peru and Mexico give the company a diversified production base, while exploration assets in Argentina and Chile provide upside potential. Copper prices have surged to $9,000 per metric ton in 2025, boosting revenue growth to 31% YoY in Q4. Valuation sits at a forward P/E of 29.3, slightly below the peer average of 30.4, suggesting a modest upside if copper continues to climb. Risks include geopolitical instability in Latin America and the cyclical nature of metal demand, but the company’s cost discipline and integrated value chain mitigate some of those concerns.
What drives Southern Copper (SCCO) stock price?
Primary price drivers for SCCO are copper price movements, production volume changes, and macro‑regional risk factors. In the last quarter, a 15% rise in copper prices translated into a 31% revenue jump to $4.09 B. Currency fluctuations also play a role; the company’s revenue is largely denominated in US dollars, so a weaker peso can improve margins. Analyst upgrades following earnings beats have added momentum, pushing the stock 14.9% in the last month. Additionally, the company’s dividend policy and capital return plans provide a steady income stream that supports the share price.
Does Southern Copper (SCCO) pay a dividend?
Southern Copper has a long‑standing policy of returning capital through dividends and buybacks. Historically, the dividend yield has hovered around 3.5% to 4% in recent years. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share in Q2 2025, which translates to a yield of roughly 3.0% at the current price of $200.46. While the latest filing does not announce a new dividend beyond Q2, the payout ratio remains steady, reflecting management’s confidence in sustaining cash flow. Investors can therefore expect regular income alongside potential capital appreciation.
How is Southern Copper (SCCO) valued compared to peers?
Valuation metrics place SCCO at a forward P/E of 29.3, slightly below the peer average of 30.4. The company’s price‑to‑sales ratio sits at 6.5, compared to a sector average of 7.2. With a market cap of $166 B, SCCO is the largest copper miner in the United States, giving it a liquidity advantage over smaller peers. The dividend yield of 3.5% also compares favorably to the sector average of 2.8%. These factors suggest that SCCO trades at a modest discount to its peers, offering a potential value play if copper prices remain supportive.
What are the key risks of investing in Southern Copper (SCCO)?
Key risks include geopolitical tensions in Peru and Mexico, which could disrupt production schedules. Currency volatility, especially a stronger US dollar, can compress margins on commodity sales denominated in local currencies. Copper price cyclicality remains a significant threat; a 20% drop in copper prices would materially impact revenue. Regulatory changes, such as new environmental standards or tax reforms in Latin America, could increase operating costs. Finally, the company’s reliance on a few large mines makes it vulnerable to operational incidents or labor disputes.
How does Southern Copper (SCCO) compete against other copper producers?
Southern Copper’s competitive edge lies in its integrated value chain, spanning extraction, smelting, and refining. This integration reduces dependency on third‑party processors and allows tighter cost control. The company’s geographic diversification across Peru, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile mitigates country‑specific risks. Additionally, SCCO benefits from lower operating costs, with a reported 65.3% operating margin increase in Q2 2026. The firm’s strong copper output base of 2.3 Mt in 2025 also positions it as a leading producer in the global market.
What is Southern Copper's geographic exposure and how does it affect growth?
Southern Copper’s production footprint is split roughly 55% Peru, 35% Mexico, and 10% Argentina/Chile. Peru’s open‑pit mines have seen a 12% increase in output year‑over‑year, while Mexico’s operations added 8% in the same period. This geographic mix shields the company from localized disruptions; for example, a weather event in Chile had minimal impact on overall output. The company’s exploration portfolio in Argentina and Chile is poised to add 5% of total production by 2028, supporting future growth. Currency exposure is also balanced, with revenue largely in USD, reducing FX risk.
How has Southern Copper's revenue trended over the past year?
Revenue has grown consistently across the last four quarters with available data. Q1 2025 revenue rose 40.6% YoY to $3.122 B, while Q4 2025 revenue increased 31% YoY to $4.092 B. The upward trend reflects higher copper prices and expanded production. The company has maintained a revenue growth rate of around 30%–35% over the past three years, driven by commodity price gains and operational efficiency. This trajectory positions SCCO well for continued top‑line expansion.
What were Southern Copper's recent earnings results and how did they compare to estimates?
In Q1 2025, Southern Copper reported EPS of $1.15672 versus an estimate of $1.10379, marking a beat of approximately 5%. Revenue for the quarter reached $3.122 B, surpassing analyst expectations. The company’s operating margin expanded, with a 65.3% increase in Q2 2026, reflecting improved cost discipline. Analysts noted that the EPS beat aligns with the company’s focus on top‑line growth amid rising metal prices. However, earnings for Q4 2025 are not yet available, so a full comparison across the year remains pending.
How has Southern Copper's stock performed over the last year?
Over the past twelve months, SCCO’s share price has risen 107.3%, more than doubling its value. The month‑to‑month return of 14.9% and the three‑month return of 11.7% illustrate strong short‑term momentum. Despite a modest 0.9% return over the last six months, the overall trajectory remains bullish, outpacing the broader basic materials sector. The stock’s performance has been bolstered by earnings beats, rising copper prices, and positive analyst sentiment. Comparatively, peers have delivered 80%–90% gains, positioning SCCO ahead of the cohort.
What is the analyst consensus on Southern Copper's price target?
The consensus price target for SCCO stands at $168.25, with a high of $250.00 and a low of $128.50. Out of 18 analysts, 1 holds a buy rating, 7 hold, and 10 sell. This split reflects a cautious outlook, as some analysts are wary of commodity cyclicality and geopolitical risks. Nonetheless, the mean target remains above the current price of $200.46, indicating potential upside if copper prices remain supportive. The target range suggests that while there is room for growth, volatility remains a concern.
What is Southern Copper's operating margin trend?
Southern Copper’s operating margin has shown notable improvement, rising to 65.3% in Q2 2026. This increase is largely driven by higher by‑product credits and lower operating cash costs. In Q1 2025, the margin was 58.4%, reflecting a 7% YoY improvement. The company’s integrated operations enable it to capture value at each stage of the value chain, bolstering profitability. Consistent margin expansion supports the company’s dividend and capital return policies.
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