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LITE·Lumentum Holdings Inc.

$931.67
+38.04 (+4.26%)
Overnight$930.59-1.08 (-0.12%)
High
$951.60
Open
$915.66
Market Cap
80.16B
52W High
$1,085.68
Low
$896.00
P. Close
$931.67
P/E
-
52W Low
$144.10
Fwd P/E
23.45
DailyIQ Est.
$1211.60
Inst. Ownership
8.0%
Short Interest
8.27%
Days to Cover
1.7
Technical Score (1D)
82
BUY
News Sentiment
45
MIXED
Lumentum’s shares surged nearly 10 % this week after a bullish valuation model projected a target price of $1,653, implying a 97 % upside, and a strong Q4 earnings report that doubled revenue to $1.01 billion and lifted adjusted EPS to $3.23. The earnings beat, driven by record 1.6 trillion transceiver shipments and a 109 % YoY revenue jump, confirms the company’s ability to capture AI‑driven data‑center demand, which is expected to continue through 2027 as the industry shifts from copper to fiber optics. Management’s guidance for the next quarter—revenue of $1.225‑$1.275 billion and EPS of $4.05‑$4.35—signals sustained growth momentum and a potential earnings acceleration that could support the high valuation. The partnership with Nvidia, involving a $2 billion equity stake and multi‑year purchase commitments, secures a supply chain advantage for Lumentum’s laser chips and high‑speed transceivers, mitigating the risk of component shortages that could otherwise dampen revenue. In addition, Lumentum’s inclusion among top co‑packaged optics (CPO) beneficiaries positions it to benefit from the AI networking boom projected through 2028, potentially boosting demand for its optical interconnect products. Institutional inflows of billions of dollars from mutual funds have pushed the stock into a clear buy zone, underscoring confidence in Lumentum’s AI‑centric product line despite valuation concerns. Analysts at Rothschild & Co Redburn have raised the price target to $1,294.85, citing solid revenue growth and margin expansion, which further supports the bullish outlook. Watch for the upcoming earnings release to confirm whether the company can maintain its revenue trajectory and whether the Nvidia partnership delivers the expected volume commitments; any deviation could materially alter the near‑term upside.
Earnings Summary
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is a global technology provider focused on optical and photonic solutions, serving cloud data centers, AI infrastructure, and industrial manufacturing through its Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech segments. In Q1 2025 the company posted EPS of $0.57 against an estimate of $0.50 and revenue of $425 million, a modest sequential increase. The most recent Q4 2026 earnings revealed a strong EPS beat of $3.23 versus an estimate of $2.97 and revenue of $1.006 billion versus an estimate of $1.007 billion, reflecting a 109 % YoY revenue jump driven by record transceiver shipments for AI and cloud customers. Lumentum’s EPS trend has accelerated, with Q3 2026 EPS at $2.37 versus an estimate of $2.31, and the company has consistently outperformed analyst forecasts in the last four quarters, achieving EPS beats in each period and revenue growth in three of the four quarters. Recent news includes a Rothschild & Co Redburn price‑target upgrade to $1,294.85, citing renewed confidence in revenue growth and margin expansion, and a strategic pivot away from cyclical telecom equipment toward AI‑driven data‑center optics, supported by a long‑term fiber‑optic supply agreement with Corning‑Verizon. Investors should watch for guidance on new product launches and capacity expansions, as well as any signs of margin compression from competitive pressure in the 800G/1.6T transceiver market, which could influence the company’s growth trajectory in the next quarter.

EPS

EstBeatMiss
$-0.05$1.15$2.35$3.56$4.76Q1'25Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$4.21 - -
Q4'26$2.97$3.23+8.8%
Q3'26$2.31$2.37+2.4%
Q1'25$0.50$0.57+13.7%

Revenue

EstBeatMiss
$298M$573M$849M$1.1B$1.4BQ1'25Q3'26Q4'26Q1'27
QtrEstActual+/−
Q1'27$1.3B - -
Q4'26$1.0B$1.0B-0.1%
Q3'26$820M$808M-1.5%
Q1'25 - $425M -
Full Earnings BreakdownEstimates, actuals, guidance, and historical context
→

Market Data

LITE Stock Snapshot

BUY82/100
$930.59−$1.08 (0.1%)
Market cap
80.16B
Day range
$896.00 – $951.60
News sentiment
45/100 · Neutral
Analyst target
$1149.38 (+23.5%)
Consensus
Buy · 37 analysts
52-week range+545.8% off low · -14.3% from high
$144.10$1085.68
Price $930.59 DailyIQ Est. $1211.60

Price is in the upper part of its 52-week range, and the momentum read backs that positioning up. In Technology, names this size usually take direction from sector flows before company-level news.

Reverse DCF

What growth is priced into LITE?

RICH

At today's price, Lumentum Holdings Inc. needs to grow free cash flow about 112.8% a year for the next 10 years to justify its valuation at a 14.90% cost of capital. Over its actual history it has compounded free cash flow at 29.2% a year, so the market is asking for 83.6 percentage points above its own delivered rate. On that basis LITE looks priced above what its own growth record supports.

Implied FCF growth
112.8%
Historical FCF CAGR
29.2%
Growth gap
+83.6 pts
Verdict
RICH
Discount rate (WACC)
14.90%
Beta
2.05

Behaviour On Record

What LITE's own history says about today's numbers

Realized volatility (21d)
83.4% 87th pct
Below its peak
-12.2%
vs 200-day average
+30.9%
Up days (1y)
53%

Lumentum Holdings Inc. is currently running 83.4% annualised volatility over the last 21 sessions. Measured against LITE's own 11 years of daily returns rather than a market-wide average, that is the 87th percentile — elevated for this stock, against a typical reading of 46.2%. The distinction matters because a number that looks calm for one stock is turbulent for another, and the absolute figure on its own tells you neither.

LITE is trading -12.2% below its running peak. Across 10 full years on file, its median worst-drawdown-in-a-year was -37.7%, and the deepest was -54.4% in 2022. The current pullback is therefore shallower than what this stock gives back in a typical year, which is context worth having before treating it as a dislocation.

Price sits +30.9% from its 200-day moving average. Against every other day in its history, that gap ranks at the 79th percentile — a somewhat wider gap than its own norm. Over the past year LITE closed higher on 53% of sessions, and it is currently 1 session into a rising streak.

On September specifically: over 12 years of records, LITE finished the month higher 4 of 12 times, with a median return of -4.7% and an average of -0.4%. Its strongest month historically has been November at +10.6% on average, its weakest April at -4.0%. Seasonality is a weak signal on its own — a decade is a small sample and regimes change — but it is a real distribution rather than a rule of thumb.

Overnight risk is measurable too: LITE has opened more than 2% away from the prior close in 309 of 2,804 sessions (11.0% of the time), with the largest gaps running +36.4% and -37.4%. For anyone holding through an event, that rate is a better guide to overnight exposure than the intraday range.

All figures computed from 2,805 daily closes between 2015-07-23 and 2026-09-18, split-adjusted, recomputed daily. Percentiles are against LITE's own 11-year history, not a peer group or index.

Sector Rotation

Is money rotating into or out of LITE's sector?

Lumentum Holdings Inc. sits in the Industrials sector, currently ranked 11th of 11 GICS sectors by relative-strength rotation score (improving).

Sector rank
#11 of 11
Sector state
Improving
Sector rotation score
30

Options Market

What is the options market pricing for LITE?

CallsPuts

For Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s nearest expiry (2026-09-25, 5 days out), open interest is roughly balanced between puts and calls (put/call ratio of 1.06), with at-the-money implied volatility around 76.7%. The options market is pricing roughly a ±8.9% move by that expiry — a range of about $848.06–$1013.12.

Put/call ratio (2026-09-25)
1.06
ATM implied volatility
76.7%
Total open interest
12,077
Expected move by 2026-09-25
±8.9% ($848.06–$1013.12)

Analyst Rating Changes

Are analysts turning bullish or bearish on LITE?

Deutsche Bank most recently initiated coverage on Lumentum Holdings Inc. to Buy on Sep 1, 2026 with a price target of $1200. Over the last 90 days, coverage has run 1 upgrade against 0 downgrades, a net bullish lean.

Latest action
Deutsche Bank — Buy
90-day upgrades
1
90-day downgrades
0
Net rating momentum
+1
DateFirmActionRatingPrice target
Sep 1, 2026Deutsche BankInitiatedBuy$1200
Aug 31, 2026Evercore ISI GroupInitiatedOutperform$1100
Aug 12, 2026Morgan StanleyMaintainedEqual-Weight$900 → $1000
Aug 12, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$800 → $820
Aug 12, 2026JP MorganMaintainedOverweight$1165 → $1280
Aug 12, 2026MizuhoMaintainedOutperform$1100 → $1140
Aug 12, 2026RosenblattMaintainedBuy$1300
Aug 12, 2026B of A SecuritiesMaintainedNeutral$1100 → $1000
Jul 20, 2026BarclaysUpgradeEqual-Weight → Overweight$1000
Jul 13, 2026TD CowenMaintainedHold$995 → $800
Jun 9, 2026NeedhamReiteratedBuy$1040
May 7, 2026BarclaysMaintainedEqual-Weight$750 → $1000

LITE Competitive Positioning

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is tracked alongside these names in Communication Equipment on DailyIQ — ranked by market cap, with today's move alongside.

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